The hryvnia is expected to weaken slightly in 2024, yet the year’s average rate will likely reach 37.3 hryvnias per dollar, compared to 36.5 in 2023, investment company Dragon Capital’s* Chief Economist, Olena Bilan, said at the RAU Summit 2023 in Kyiv on Dec. 5.
External support will lead to an increase in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Ukraine’s National Bank (NBU), enabling it to continue relaxing currency restrictions and allowing the hryvnia to move in both directions more freely than it currently does, Bilan said.
“Now the consensus among analysts, the average forecast, is moving towards ours: now the latest data is 37.9 hryvnias per dollar on average for the year,” she said.
“We expect that our partners will provide $40 billion in international direct budget support.”
This will help maintain control over the situation in the currency market, the Chief Economist said.
Dragon Capital reportedly halved Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 4.0% year-over-year earlier in October, and warned that the hryvnia exchange rate may reach 39 UAH/USD by the end of 2024.
The Economy Ministry forecasts that Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 4% in 2024, and this forecast is included in the draft state budget for 2024.
The World Bank forecasts that Ukraine’s GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024.