Ukraine’s economy is likely to grow by about 4.6% in 2024, although Russian attacks could worsen this figure, Economy Minister Yuliya Svyrydenko said during the Kyiv Investment Day Forum.
Svyrydenko stated that after a large-scale decline in the economy — by almost 30% in 2022 — growth began last year, which amounted to at least 5.3%.
“We expect that this year the economy will continue to recover – at least by 4.5-4.6%,” she said.
“Of course, the indicators can be worse due to missile attacks, primarily on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but our basic forecast is still at the level of 4.6%. It is critically important for us. As, of course, the expansion of Ukraine’s energy capabilities, the development of new energy capacities. We need to build and develop decentralized, highly maneuverable [power] generation.”
According to the IMF forecast, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024. During the third review of the IMF’s extended financing program for Ukraine, this rate was estimated to be in the range of 3-4% in March.
Meanwhile, the economic growth forecast for 2025 has been kept at 6.5%, which is higher than the 2023 figure at 5.3%, according to the State Statistics Service. The IMF also expects average annual inflation to slow to 6.4% this year from 12.9% last year and slightly accelerate to 7.6% in 2025.