Despite significant losses, the Ukrainian economy has displayed a resilient trend of growth since the beginning of 2023, Ukraine’s Economy Ministry has said.
The ministry initially projected a GDP growth of 3.2%. However, due to the sabotage of the Kakhovka dam by Russian forces, the forecast was revised to 2.8%.
As it turns out, those concerns may have been premature. Despite Russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement and attacks on the port infrastructure of Odesa and the Danube, the Ministry of Economy, in line with updated calculations, now anticipates that the internal gross domestic product will grow by approximately 3.2% this year, aligning with the initial projections made earlier.
“At the end of the first half of the year, GDP growth is estimated at 2.7%,” the ministry said in its report.
“By the end of the year, we expect to reach a growth trajectory of 3.2%, a figure that served as the basis for the budget calculations in 2023. However, given the speed and efficiency with which businesses and the population have adapted to new economic conditions amidst constant challenges and other favorable factors, we anticipate the potential for even higher GDP growth. Nevertheless, the war persists, keeping the risks at a high level.”
According to the ministry’s data, 2024 is poised to experience accelerated GDP growth. As part of the 2024 budget process, a projection of approximately 5% GDP growth is being considered under specific conditions. These conditions encompass the conclusion of the war by mid-year, the gradual return of migrants, the restoration of port operations post-liberation and demining, and the initiation of recovery measures propelled by government initiatives, active reforms, and Ukraine’s reconstruction in collaboration with partner countries and international organizations. Additionally, an influx of investments driven by effective reform implementation is expected.
Importantly, the country’s economic recovery will unfold against a backdrop of macroeconomic stability and a reduction in security risks, achieved through close cooperation with international partners, including EU countries, the G7, and NATO.
As previously reported, the National Bank of Ukraine estimated real GDP growth would be 2.9% in 2023.